SofaF1

A team that probably should have done better last year. They had a year old car which can't have helped things. But then they had the rev limited V10. To be fair to them they were damned if they did and damned if they didn't. If they had done well the stewards would have further limited their engines and then they would have been at the back of the grid. As it was they didn't need any help from the stewards.

The Drivers

[These are the provisional drivers as the final team line up hasn't been announced.]

I'm not sure I've ever understood what people see in Liuzzi. Or rather what they used to see. Of course it's hard to see how well either of the drivers have done in a car which was troubling all year and difficult to drive. I can see why Burger hasn't declared what he's doing next year yet. His drivers haven't out driven the car this year.

Scott Speed has the same problems as above but in addition is, despite his name, slower. And more arrogant.

The team

This year they will have a better car and better engines in theory. The team however doesn't seem as together and driven as those around them.

The problems

We know how hard Red Bull pushed to have Renault engines rather than Ferrari ones. This clearly means that the Renault engines will work much better with the chasis that Red Bull and Torro Rosso will be sharing. We also know from last year that the Ferrari engine has all kinds of packing problems which can make it overheat. I think that Adrian Newey will not bother to solve this problem properly. So I think Torro Rosso could have to run the engine at a seriously compromised power output.

Outside Bet?

Torro Rosso beat Red Bull. This is the most outside bet so far.

More Likely?

A stinker of a season.

How did we miss this story last year?

http://www.autosport.com/news/grapevine.php/id/48977

In my post this morning I said I thought Williams could end up best of the rest. And I was thinking after I sent it that it might not really be clear what that means.

In the constructors championship there used to be a top four or three. But in the past ten years it has been really a top two or three. This is largely because while Renault was hauling itself up Williams was falling away. The teams in this top four are kind of like the permanent members of the UN. And they have been Ferrari, McLaren, Benetton / Renault (the same team despite the name change in my book) and Williams.

Other teams have popped up from time to time, and some of this group have fallen lower. But the key difference is that none that have fallen in position after having risen have stayed the course – except for there four. This is why you can’t discount a return for Williams. It just might not happen this year.

In Formula One there seems to be a number of different ways to cut it. I normally think of the top two or three teams as the first tier. I would say that McLaren were not in this tier last year because they never really seemed to be challenging for the title. And we have had three way title battles as recently as four years ago when it was Ferrari, McLaren and Williams in the hunt until the second to last race.

Then there are the middle of the field people last year this was lead by McLaren (110 points – just over half the points scored by Ferrari), then it went Honda (86), BMW (36) and Toyota (35). Okay so there’s another big gap in there but it seemed to me that there these teams were the kind of teams which were usually in the points paying positions through the year.

Then we have what I was talking about as the best of the rest which was Red Bull racing this year. They had 16 points so less than half of Toyota above them, so a big gap. And really these are the teams that were excited to get just a point in a race let alone anything else. And obviously we have Williams, Toro Rosso, Midland and Super Aguri. The last two didn’t score any points at all in the season.

So yes this is a bit of a rambling post but the point is that there are always these three bands. The top teams, the middle teams and the rest. There isn’t a straight number of teams in each year but there always seems to be bands like this rather than the particular continuum that you would normally expect.

Really it splits, I suppose, into teams that win races, teams that regularly score points and teams that are surprised by points. But obviously that would have been a much shorter post!

How the mighty have fallen. There are torrid seasons for big teams, like MaLaren not winning a single race – but at least they stayed in the top three, and then there William's disaster of a season. But this year there are big changes for the team. First a really big sponsorship deal and second Toyota engines.

The Drivers

Nico Rosberg was a revelation when he appeared in the first race of the last season. But what happened to him? Well the car became undriveable and he made some rookie errors. Unfortunately he tended to make mistakes on the days when he seemed to have a chance. If the car is faster but more importantly reliable then we could see a lot of Nico this year. Sadly for him he'll probably do some stunning drives that get him from 22nd to 9th and because he's still out of the points nobody will notice. A bit like Sato last year. A driver with potential for greatness. Lets hope the team doesn't let him down again.

Alex Wurtz has been hiding away at McLaren and Williams in testing roles rather like Anthony Davidson has been doing at Honda. He's a sensible driver who should be able to give the team some great feedback on the track. This might be a shrewd move by the team as the new rules mean that it will be the race drivers who do the testing on a Friday. Otherwise it's not the most inspiring choice. But he's a very nice guy and he'll be on itv a lot which will be good for the sponsors.

The team

A lot of change in the team over the winter. They have also moved Sam Michael off of the pit wall and back towards the factory which seems a smart move. Sam's a technical director who is too technical for his own good. He's never been a leader. Who they put in charge here will be crucial.

The problems

Reliability, reliability, reliablity.

Outside bet?

You don't want to bet against a Williams comeback. With new money at a team that's learnt how to spend efficiently, reliable engines and Nico being quick we could see a podium or two for the team.

More likely?

Best of the rest.

Kimi doesn’t look right in a Ferrari shirt: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/56186
Alonso doesn’t look right with a shaved head: http://www.autosport.com/magazine.html

Is this a bad sign, or completely irrelevant? Does how a driver look in his team colours matter at all, or will we just ‘get used’ to them? It’s certainly a very superficial aspect of the sport, but if we feel uncomfortable, perhaps the drivers and the team might begin to do so, and if there is one problem, it can easily develop in to, and justify, many more…

A quiet year last year while they were waiting for an Adrian Newey designed car.

The Drivers

Coulthard has been driving well since he moved to this team. And it will be interesting to see what a bit of proper competition does to that confidence. I think he’s really liked being number one which may not stay once Webber arrives. Interestingly Coulthard always does better in the race than qualifying.

Whereas Webber is known for the opposite. Mark has been waiting for his big break for a while. He’s likeable, but he’s not been lucky. Maybe this is the big one for him.

The team

With the new car having been worked on for so long and with such an important designer in charge we should see some real progress from the team this year. They could really be snapping at the heals of the big boys. Especially as they’re powered by Renault engines.

The problems

If Webber starts beating Coulthard that may cause some instability in the team. And as Webber works for Flav we could start seeing fireworks if the Red Bull Renaults start going faster than the Renault Renaults.

Outside bet?

Mark wins a race in a straight fight with Fisi.

More likely

Red Bull get themselves ahead of Toyota.

Think back to just a few years ago when Ferrari and Michael seemed to win everything. Then Toyota was just a glimmer in the car makers eye. What they wanted was not just to join Formula one but dominate. The answer came back. The teams in Formula one at the end of the season always seem to line up in order of budget. That was the dirty secret of Formula one that they thought they had uncovered. Spend more money than Ferrari and you can win. So in came a budget bigger than Ferrari and red cars they even, after a bit, bagged themselves a Schumacher. It was just the wrong one. And now two other manufacturer teams have joined and Honda and BMW did better than them. But to be fair to Toyota for a moment they did build their team from scratch and almost from the moment they arrived Formula one started trying to make money less important. For the last two year Renault have won everything and yet their budget is certainly not one of the top three. The big criticisms for Toyota are that they have no clear race day leadership and their driver selection is mad.

The Drivers

Ralf is the third highest paid driver in Formula One. And last year he didn't win any races. He is number one at something though: inconsistency. He'd blame the car for his lack of wins and sure even the best would have found it hard in a car like that. But why pay somebody average that much money? Why not have some raw talent in the car so you can spend more on the car. That's been BMW's tactic this year and it has seemed to work.

Trulli used to be known as the roadblock because he'd qualify well and then keep everyone behind him in a car that was slower in race trim. Now he isn't qualifying well and he can't keep people behind him.

The problems?

Imagine a problem and Toyota have a form you have to fill out in triplicate to find out how many times they've had that problem even though the answer is always lots.

Outside bet?

Ralf wins a race.

More likely

There's yet another massive shake up at Toyota which yet again has no visible impact because they fail to fire the drivers.

BMW had a great season last year as most improved team. Despite the lackluster performance of their lead driver.

The Drivers

Nick Heidfeld had a poor season proving that even when you get what you've been hoping for sometimes it can not be all you'd hoped. He finally got a top funded team concentrated around him which he's always wanted since Kimi took his chance when he went to MaLaren. And yet he still needed to be shocked out of complacency by his team mates every couple of races. He'll have to watch himself this year.

Kubica took to the track after BMW had had enough of Jacques. At the time it seemed a bad move because JV was actually hustling more than Heidfeld. But Kubica was so fast such criticisms soon went out of the window. Now with a little experience under his seatbelt and a winter test program with him in the driver role we should see some very exciting stuff from him next season. Certainly a contender for at least a win.

The team

Other than changing their driver their team has been almost as stable as Honda. This should stand them in good stead this year. The also have a very highly regarded ace up their sleeve in the shape of Sebastian Vittel who seems seriously fast. I would love to see Heidfeld dumped and Vittel in his place. We'd see some serious fireworks between Vittel and Kubica if they were pushing each other.

The problems?

It has been announced that Vittel might replace the worst performing driver three quarters of the way through the season. This could spur the drivers on but could easily cause in fighting in a team that has so far been pretty harmonious.

Outside bet?

Heidfeld dumped mid season. Vittel promoted.

More likely?

Kubica outshines his lead driver and gets at least one win.

The team scored their first win last year with Jenson Button but with all of the hype they've been generating about next year will they be able to live up to their own expectations?

The Drivers

Jenson finally won last year but in a situation which probably begs more questions than it answers. Can you really call yourself a winner if it takes all of the other drivers falling off the track for you to win. He did drive well in a difficult situation, but he's certainly kidding himself if he thinks the stat that he won more points than anyone else in the last eight races is important for this year. Jenson needs to do well this year because otherwise the brit support will be split four ways this year. And with Hamilton's potential to be super quick he's going to have to watch himself to make sure he doesn't become Coulthard.

What has happened to Rubens? Is he going to be remembered as the best second driver ever or is he going to step up to the plate? You can't help but feel that even Rubens has admitted to himself that if it was going to happen that it would have happened by now. But until we see him pushing Jenson he isn't fulfilling his own potential.

The Team

The main advantage for Honda over any of the front runners is their stability. No changes to management and no changes to drivers. Maybe this will work to their advantage.

The problems

They are a team that is built around their "superstar" driver, copying the system that worked so well at Ferrari. They just haven't noticed that Jenson doesn't deserve the attention.

Outside Bet?

Jenson wins the world championship.

More Likely?

Jenson fails to win a single race.

A disaster of a year for McLaren with much turbulence and upset for the team. They didn’t deliver even one win which must have hurt Ron quite badly. But on the other hand it was a disaster of his own making. He was unable to hang on to Adrian Newey but because he hired the world champion driver a year in advance he caused massive instability in his own team where three drivers into two didn’t fit. Whatever the truth about when Kimi’s contract was signed to Ferrari you have to ask why Montoya quit. He looked like a shoe in for the second seat. But maybe it was the way that Ron was chasing after Kimi and trying to get him to change his mind which upset Juan-Pablo so.

The Drivers

What more can be said about Alonso which hasn’t been said before? He’s fast, mentally strong, and can do a mean card trick. I personally think Alonso will fit in very well at McLaren. Ron’s looking for a son after Mika (Kimi was never it – too outlandish) and Alonso is looking for a father figure he can trust (Flav was too outlandish for Alonso). A bond will be formed between them. The only thing that can hold him back is the car – he’s ready to win again.

Hamilton has a hard balancing act coming up. He’s got a massive learning curve ahead of him. And it’s going to be a hard one to scale. He needs to stop himself from being too cocky at first because people will be expecting too much from him. People will forgive him a few mistakes in his rookie year. And nobody will expect him to be next to Alonso (except Lewis himself) this year which will give him some space to learn. But already I feel like some people on the grid resent Hamilton. Every driver would have loved to have learnt on the best equipment and have said that Ron is taking too big of a risk. And I’m sure they’d all love to be proved right.

The team

Lots of changes for the design department. And while there have been lots of rumours that Ron wrote off last year to start work on this car early we have to face that some of that work will have been redundant due to late rule changes and that this is the first car designed by a new and untested team. Last years car was designed by Newey.

The problems

The reliability and terminal speed of the car will be the main factors. If the McLaren isn’t fast out of the box come Melbourn then Alonso will be struggling all year. He’s used to setting out his stall with Renault not chasing at the end of the season.

Outside bet?

Hamilton wins a race before Alonso does.

More likely?

Alonso teaches Kimi what driving despite a poor car looks like, but it’s just not enough to win the championship.