SofaF1

So this, very much, is it. It’s Alonso’s to win and Lewis’s to loose. Kimi can still win the championship and it’s not impossible, but it will require at least one of the drivers from a team other than McLaren or Ferrari to be ahead of Lewis. This is not something that has happened very often this season. Except when it rains.

It is likely to rain today in Brazil but will now probably stay dry for the rest of the weekend. This tilts things away from Kimi for the championship because he’s basically got to rely on rain or Lewis being taken out of the race.

The form probably favours McLaren this weekend. The circuit is bumpy which the Ferrari hasn’t been liking, and the Ferrari hasn’t really been able to work the super soft tires as well as McLaren. Both of these point towards McLaren dominance of the event.

On the other hand we know Alonso will be down on power. The high altitude lowers the power delivery and coupled to this Brazil has a number of elevation changes. Going up hill needs all of the power that you’ve got.

The other downside for McLaren is that they are much more marginal on tires than Ferrari. While Ferrari can’t make the super softs go fast, McLaren can’t seem to make them finish the race in one piece.

It’s important not to forget Massa in all this. Sure he can’t win the championship but he can certainly win the race. He’ll only hand over to Kimi if Kimi can win the championship.

But imagine this for a situation. Massa covers Lewis. Kimi covers Alonso. Massa uses low fuel to put Lewis under pressure shredding his tires. All the while Kimi has boat loads of fuel but can still go faster than Alonso because of that extra power. If Lewis didn’t make it into the pits in time that would mean Kimi winning the world championship.

Essentially what I’m saying is that anything is possible.

My favourite theory for what might happen was something I read in the comments over at F1fanatic

Well, with a bit of luck Lewis will get a 10 slot penalty from a blow up in qualy 2 and will start from the back of the grid.

Kimi on pole, Fernando P2

Lewis will then fight through the entire field, overtaking everyone up to Alonso and Kimi by the last lap.

On the last lap lewis will dive between the pair of them and take the lead going into the final corner, winning the race by a tenth of a second.

This will have two effects – shutting up the whingy losers who don’t like to see their driver spanked by the young buck, and also, more importantly, make James Allen’s head explode.

nellyweb

This year even Michael Schumacher will be watching it from the Sofa. He wrote on his site:

“I can well think back to the tension a weekend like this one means to the driver and to be honest, I’m quite happy to be watching the race from my sofa at home this time.”

Most of the SofaF1 team will be watching the race over at mine this weekend. The beer is chilling, the expectations are building and the race is going to be thrilling.

Your predictions, as always are most welcome.

Good Luck, Scott Speed and enjoy this one, it’s going to be the last race for a while, and it’s going to be great.

Stew and I were wondering how much of an advantage having a fresh engine would really give in modern rev limited F1. James Allen reckons this:

Because Alonso retired in Japan and took a fresh engine for China, his unit will be on its second race and thus about 10bhp down on Lewis’s by the time the races comes around.

That is quite significant on a track like this where horsepower is critical for the long uphill pit straight.

So the latest rumours are that:

1) Alonso and Heikki swap.

2) Alonso goes to Renualt, Rosberg goes to McLaren

3) (One that seems to be growing in favour recently) Alonso stays at McLaren, and there is no change to the line up. The theory being that Ron has realised that he doesn’t need to talk to Alonso for Alonso to go quickly – so it probably doesn’t matter.

Well as Kimi said,

“We need to just finish this season and work hard for next year, see who goes where, and then decide what happens.”

At the pub last night conversation turned to Formula 1. It hasn’t been possible to talk about F1 in a pub for years, but these days things are a little bit different.

One of the guys there, Big Dave, said something quite interesting…

“Before the season started I really wanted him to succeed. A young black guy coming in to a rich white man’s sport and turning the whole thing over. It would have be fantastic. But when he’s talking I don’t like him, I just don’t. He’s too arrogant, comparing himself t’ Schumacher and t’ Senna. Fuck off! He’s a fuckin’ rookie. I’m a traditionalist and ya shouldn’t be able to fuckin’ win in your first season. If you are then it’s the car, and that’s a cheaters car that car. The best thing he can do for his career is not win the championship. Because he doesn’t want that tainted championship against his name. But anyway I don’t like him.”

Dave did go on, basically, just reordering the sentences and the words above for another 20 minutes, but those were the salient points. The only other thing he mentioned as a aggrieved Scot was, “where was McLaren’s equality when the kept shafting Coulthard over the years?”

Anyway, that’s what the man on the street’s saying…

…is that they can really come back to bite.

I just remembered the other day that we all have extra points coming at the end of the season in terms of double points for whoever is winning the championship, but I couldn’t for the life of me remember what we had predicted.

None of us stand to win with Lewis (Fourstar adding, “not sure Hamilton will be as impressive in his first season as everyone thinks”). Fourstar and I went for Kimi and Stew and Nick went for Alonso. So if it is either of them then it could be a big swing factor (8 points).

I did notice another post that was made before the season started from Stew which really was quite funny.

I think an important factor this year will be team unity, and from the things I have absorbed I’m left with the feeling that McLaren will present a very united, focussed and determined front, there is no doubt they have the skills and experience within the team and I am sure they will bounce back form this last streak of bad form, but I think with Alonso and Hamilton in place a whole chunk of fresh air has been blasted through the place. Alonso is the superstar driver and coming off the back of double world championships is respected and accepted. Hamilton in his rookie year will be out to learn all he can, could provide solid support for Alonso and being a racer he will be out to prove himself also and go for the wins when he can.

Ferrari on the other hand seems to me to have a very fast, reliable car (always a good thing in F1) but will struggle a bit more within the team. Both Massa and Raikkonnen are superstar drivers and will want to be seen as such, both within the team and to the world. It may well be more of a problem for Massa if Kimi outperforms him. The team too have been used to pulling all the stops out for Schumacher (second driver included) and may well have more issues adjusting to the different setup…

…and no Ross Brawn.

Sorry for brining it up Stew, I on the other hand covered myself in glory with this comment about McLaren:

Personally I don’t think there will be much team mate rivalry here unless Hamilton wins a race before Alonso does. Alonso knows how good he is and doesn’t have to prove it to Hamilton. Also I think Alonso is a good bloke and will look to support Lewis. Whether this support neuters Hamilton’s ability to beat Alonso as it did to Fisi before him remains to be seen.

Nick’s of course could still be proven correct, perhaps the whole thing has been hushed up?:

Massa will outperform Raikkonen by so much that people will begin to get suspicious. The rumour will get around that a McLaren mechanic overheard him talking fluently in German. Then, in Monza, a crazed fan will rush into the pits and tear Massa’s face off, revealing Michael Schumacher underneath.

Italian Police will later find Massa tied up in a basement in Vernoa, with his face missing.

It’s been obvious for some time that the British media have been a tad on the biased side towards Lewis Hamilton. It’s no surprise to find that the Spanish Media are similarly biased towards their man.

I was surprised to read how aggrieved some of Alonso’s fans are with Hamilton, McLaren and the FIA. So far 112,583 people have signed a petition “To denounce the irregularities which have taken place during the 2007 F1 championship”.

I thought I’d share the list of complaints that they have. They sound, in the main, like paranoid fantasy, but a lot of the things on the list are events I hadn’t even heard of.

To denounce the irregularities which have taken place during the 2007 F1 championship

As witnesses of the events which have taken place during the 2007 F1 championship, and as admirers of this sport, we feel obliged to publicly denounce the irregularities which have occurred, clearly showing that the driver, L. Hamilton has benefited from the favors of his team, generating serious damages for his companion F. Alonso, whose career has suffered from the lack of interest of both his team and the International Federation of Automobile.

The proven facts and presumed irregularities are the following:

G.P. of Barhein (15-04-07) Strangely, F. Alonso’s car encountered troubles in night conditions, on a statement of his own team, which prevented him from following the rhythm of his companion, whose car was functioning perfectly. L. Hamilton changed his trajectory several times, which is absolutely prohibited, but he was not sanctioned.

G.P. of Monaco (27-05-07) A few laps from the end, the team ordered both drivers to go below 19.000 r.p.m. L. Hamilton, refused to obey his team and tried to overtake his companion. Not succeeding in doing so, he complained to the FIA and the British Media after the end of the race, provoking an investigation and a high pressure on F. Alonso. The team took no measure whatsoever towards L. Hamilton, and did not support F. Alonso. Moreover, during the race, L. Hamilton frequently stepped over the continuous line when exiting the pit lane, which is totally prohibited. But he was not sanctioned in any way by the FIA

G.P. of Canada (10-06-07) Strange behavior of F. Alonso’s car. Once more, the number one car was not in the same mechanical conditions than L. Hamilton’s car.

G.P. of the USA (17-06-07) Once more, the pit stop strategies were in favor of L. Hamilton and detrimental to F. Alonso.

G.P. of France (01-07-07) Strangely, before the rain forecast, F. Alonso faced problems with his gear case during Q3, ending up on the tenth position of the starting grid whereas his companion L. Hamilton encountered no problems at all. De La Rosa explained during the race that this spare part had been perfectly identified and removed.

G.P. of Germany (22-07-07) Peculiar reaction of the race controllers when facing L. Hamilton’s slip off the track, a crane put him back on the track, creating risks of collision with other pilots. Even more peculiar is that the other drivers were not placed back on the track regarding the moment they slipped off; only L. Hamilton benefitted from an immediate return on the track. Although the rules clearly specify that a driver must turn off his engine and get out of his car, like the rest of the drivers did, he was not penalised.

G.P. of Hungary (05-08-07) A supplementary lap was given to F. Alonso in Q3. L. Hamilton disobeying his team’s orders entered the boxes to change his tyres on his own will, right behind F. Alonso, who was given used tyres. The following moment, L. Hamilton was equipped with a brand new pair of tyres. Nevertheless, F. Alonso succeeded in earning the pole position, to the apparent disappointment of Ron Dennis. Thus, L. Hamilton denounced F. Alonso again to the FIA and, consequently, he lost 5 positions on the starting grid, following the application of an inexistent rule, and McLaren also lost its constructor points earned during this race. Unexplainably, no sanction was applied to L. Hamilton after this race.

G.P. of Italy (09-09-07) L. Hamilton placed his car diagonally when positioning himself on the starting grid, and made several trajectory changes without being sanctioned.

G.P. of Belgium (16-09-07) Presumed sabotage attempt on F. Alonso’s car. His manager declared that during the free practice sessions, F. Alonso discovered that something was wrong with his power unit, asking his mechanics to revise his car, and then discovering that the top of his oil tank was missing. It is common knowledge that it only needs a simple lap to destroy a motor in such conditions.

G.P. of Japan (30-07-07) Inexplicably, F. Alonso encountered new tyre problems during Q3, as he stated himself after the qualifications. Once more, L. Hamilton obtained a supplementary lap with new tyres and a small quantity of gas, permitting him to earn the pole position. During the race, both drivers were victims of a collision. However, only the driver who collisioned with L. Hamilton was sanctioned, whereas it was F. Alonso who suffered serious damage in his car. He was not warned of the damage on his car, which led him to crash without much reaction from the members of his team. After the accident, when behind the safety-car, L. Hamilton played once more with the rules, provoking an accident between Weber and Vettel, without being sanctioned during or after the race, even when new evidence was given to the FIA.

G.P. of China (06-10-07) Once more, F. Alonso encountered problems in Q3, after having been faster than his companion during the free practice sessions, and the first two qualifying sessions. When F. Alonso was on the podium to celebrate his second position, after L. Hamilton resigned, only one mechanic from McLaren was there to celebrate the victory. After the race, Ron Dennis publicly declared that the struggle during the race was not against Ferrari, but against F. Alonso, who is now considered by his team as an opponent.

Once these facts have been analyzed, we consider there is enough evidence to confirm that the equal treatment between the two drivers has not been respected by McLaren or by the FIA with the application of the Formula 1 rules.

Consequently, with the signatures located at:
http://www.petitiononline.com/fealonso/petition.html
we publicly denounce all these irregularities and express our deepest rejection of all that has happened during this 2007 F1 Championship.

All this information has been gathered by the Safety-car forum members at:
http://www.safety-car.net.

Best Regards!

“Anything can happen in Formula 1 and it usually does!”

I must admit I was beginning to think that the whole championship was over when Hamilton zoomed around to capture pole and then led the field from the start. With Alonso trying to make his move on Massa stick in the first few corners, but losing out to remain fourth, it all looked like it was going to go Hamilton’s way.

I also thought Fourstar had it all sewn up. When I was checking out the predictions after qualifying, it seemed like the Hamilton, Raikkonen, Alonso combo would be good for some massive points. As things turned out it was Raikkonen and Alonso who got some points for Fourstar but with only one apiece Fourstar turned in his joint third worst haul of the season.

Things didn’t go too much better for me, so I can’t really talk, although I did do slightly better than last week, Raikkonen got me one each for qualifying and the race, Alonso 2 and Massa just one more. My predictable top eight strategy really let me down this weekend!

Alex and Nick though were really on it, picking 5 each for Raikkonen’s front row and win. Alex added a further 2 for Massa and one more for Kovalainen. Nick held on even longer though, with 2 each for Alonso and Coulthard and one more for Massa.

Round 16

1 Nick 10
2 Alex 8
3 Bearded Stew 5
4 Fourstar 2

Championship

1 Nick 103
2 Bearded Stew 97
3 Alex 91
4 Fourstar 78

So Nick stretches out the Championship lead again, unlike Hamilton who sees his lead cut to 4 points from Alonso and 7 from Raikonnen, the fight is still very much on.

A bit of damp on the circuit really does liven things up for the second week in a row with the surely the craziest top eight so far this year. Vettel, Liuzzi and Button with their best finishes this year. Coulthard in there too but lagging behind his Torro Rosso cousins. The biggest shock though of course was Hamilton sliding off in the pit lane entry and not being able to recover from the gravel.

I was just thinking earlier in the race too that drivers seemed to be getting away with much more off track excursions than they used too, Hamilton included, but unfortunately for him, not today when it really mattered.

Not sure what Ralf was up to either, good qualifying run but he didn’t seem to be doing too much to get a job for next year.

Alonso kept it going to finish second which was probably the best he could do, Raikkonen really did win it fair and square.

Its great for F1 though to have a 3 way fight on into the last race. Keep the Sofa warm!

Alonso has sour grapes. He said after qualifying that he felt that the championship had been decided off of the track because they hadn’t disqualified Hamilton.

The championship was decided off of the track Fernando, it was was decided when you slid off of the track in Japan.

As a side note, Vettel desperate to be punished, has been put back 5 places for holding up another driver in qualifying.

Lewis on Poll! Absolutely awesome lap from him. It all seems to be within his grasp. He’s got a pretty good win record from pole as well (He’s only failed to secure one).

But is he flattering to deceive? That one failure to win was in Britain, he had a low fuel load in qualifying and was unable to make it to the win in the race.

But then if it rains will he be advantaged by having less spray in front of him, or disadvantaged by having a smaller pit window?

Watch the race live, it’s going to be awesome.

It seems a lot of journalists don’t really understand our sport. This is based solely on the questions to Lewis this week which have basically assumed that he’s won already. They’ve already asked him if they think winning will change him. This is the most stupid question ever because a) he hasn’t won yet and b) what answer is he going to give other than “no”?

If they’d been following Formula 1 for any amount of time they’d remember Murray’s old adage, “anything can happen in Formula 1, and it usually does.”

Cast your mind back to Silverstone earlier this year. Lewis finished in third losing two points to Alonso. Two weeks later at the European Grand Prix Lewis failed to score while Alonso romped to victory. Twelve points lost in just two races. It’s already happened this season if it happened like that again Alonso would be world champion for the third time. This isn’t over.

So what could possibly stop Lewis scoring ten points this weekend. Well there’s the fact that there’s a high probability of rain this weekend. This always makes things less predictable. Also Lewis doesn’t have to win so he may think about driving defensively. If he does he could easily get caught out in the rain. Being at the front is as vital as ever.

Also he’s under investigation for erratic driving behind the safety car. To my mind it looked like he was moving out of the way of a big puddle, realised he’d moved onto the short side of the corner and was about to hit the safety car and so he slowed down. I don’t think he should be punished but he might be. He could be moved back ten places off of the grid. Which would be bad enough for him, but he could also have his win deleted from the last race. That would specifically help Kimi who would suddenly be up in second for Japan. And of course Alonso might only be two points behind Lewis. Just remember to keep all this in mind while you make your predictions.

So what about the race? It would probably be a Ferrari track although the margin is lessened in the wet. Kimi also was going fantastically last year before his car fell apart, so expect that car to be a potent package. Indeed he was fastest in practice one.

Don’t forget that Alonso is usually mega in the wet. He’d been hit last race which compromised him (he’d lost ten percent of his downforce according to Ron Dennis). This could be a hard one to win.

All in all Lewis might need something extra if he’s going to keep the luck flowing his way. But as the circuit looks like a bunny rabbit perhaps he should camp out on the foot?

Good Luck.